![]() ![]() In the United States, almost half of sales (47%, equivalent to US$99.5 billion) were via mobile in the 2022 holiday season, up from 43% the prior year. Mobile already represents a significant share of all e-commerce, but the majority of purchases made are still offline. Two- or multi-factor authentication and passkeys will likely also play an important role. This is expected to be based on a range of technologies, including biometric identification capabilities. The smartphone is also likely to play a growing role in authenticating transactions, both online and in stores. 18 A growing, but still selective number of companies supported passkeys as of September 2023. 16 Apple launched support for passkeys with iOS 16 in September 2022, 17 and Google supports these for all operating systems from Android 9.0. 15 The momentum behind passkey is likely to grow further to the commitment by Apple, Microsoft, and Google in May 2022 to support the same passkey standard. One deployment of passkeys found that using smartphone-based biometric authentication enabled a two-thirds reduction in the number of OTPs per user, saving 1.9 pence (US 2.4 cents) per message. TFA may incur a charge for the delivery of the one-time password, while pass keys do not (aside from bandwidth usage) 14 the cost of each TFA may limit how frequently smartphone-based authentication is triggered. ![]() 12 A very high proportion of compromised accounts did not use multi-factor authentication. ![]() It can repel almost all automated bot attacks and bulk phishing attacks. Either approach can be effective at minimizing the impact of breaches. Two-factor authentication and passkeys can provide another level of security, as additional information beyond the pair of password and user ID is required. An estimated 3.4 billion malicious emails are sent daily. 10 Password users can also be vulnerable to phishing attacks, designed to trick users into sharing credentials with malign entities. 9 Furthermore, passwords are often repeated: One analysis found 64% of people used the same password across multiple accounts, incrementing the impact of a breach, as a single user ID and password combination may unlock multiple accounts. 8 The annual cost of data breaches is forecast at more than US$5 trillion in 2024. The outcome is an abundance of weak passwords, with the most popular still being “123456” and “password.” 7 Repositories of passwords paired with user IDs are often targeted and there were an estimated 24 billion passwords-one for every three people on earth-exposed by hackers in 2022. The relatively static and limited human ability for recall cannot cope with the combination of the growing number of accounts held, and the ask to memorize rising numbers of “strong” passwords. Users are asked to create a unique and, ideally strong, password for each account with some enterprises requiring that workers change their password quarterly. The cost of attacks, which are predicated on vulnerabilities that exist via passwords to authenticate access to a growing number of online accounts, is likely unsustainable. One driver for smartphone-based authentication, based on either technology, is the growing average number of online accounts and associated volume of breaches. As of 2024, usage of passkeys could be modest by 2030 usage may become higher as it could supplant TFA. The private, device-based key is released once the user has been validated using the same process that would normally be used to unlock the phone, which could be biometric (face or fingerprint) or via a password or pattern. Users who want to access an account check that the keys match. 5 With this approach, a pair of keys is generated for every account, one public and one private key stored on a phone. Passkeys authenticate access to online accounts without passwords. The smartphone may also be used increasingly to generate passkeys-likely the medium-term replacement for passwords. 3 In 2023, there were an estimated 1.3 trillion such messages sent via telecom networks, generating an estimated US$26 billion from network traffic alone. In 2024, it is expected to predominantly be used for delivery of passcodes as part of the two-factor authentication (TFA) process, whereby a one-time password (OTP) is sent to a phone, often within a text message. The smartphone is likely to play an increasing role in managing fraudulent access to online accounts. Authenticating online access: The smartphone is a common link between two-factor authentication and passkeys ![]()
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